Quick answer
Before a seasonal reorder, calculate when the goods can realistically be ready to sell and how much demand is likely to remain after that date. Include current and already-ordered stock. Set a review cutoff for each line; a strong sales week does not make every late order sensible.
Start with the last useful arrival date
Write down the date after which the product becomes harder to sell at its intended price. For a dated event product, that may be a sharp boundary. For a winter accessory, demand may decline gradually. Distinguish those patterns rather than applying the same cutoff to every seasonal item.
Work backwards through supplier lead time, delivery uncertainty, receiving checks and the time needed to label or display the goods. The date an order leaves the supplier is not the date customers can buy it. Ask for a realistic arrival range when the timing matters.
Count what will still be available when it arrives
A current stock count alone does not tell you whether to reorder. Estimate sales before the new delivery and include purchase orders already placed. Separate confirmed orders from an uncommitted supplier quote, and check whether customers have reserved any of the stock.
In an original example, 40 units are available today and another 20 are already due. You expect 25 sales before a potential new batch arrives, leaving 35 units at that point. If realistic remaining demand after arrival is 30, a further order is not supported by that scenario.
Forecasts can be wrong, so write a low, central and high case rather than hiding uncertainty in one number. Include a case where delivery is late. Decide what loss or leftover quantity the business can tolerate before considering a larger minimum order.
Test the minimum order against the downside
The first-time seasonal seller in the linked thread asks about minimum quantities, packaging and leftovers. Those costs can move together: buying more goods may also require more boxes, printed labels and storage. Count the full commitment rather than only the supplier's unit price.
Suppose a reorder minimum is 50 units at £8 each, while the lower-demand scenario leaves 35 unsold. That ties £280 of purchase cost to the leftover units before packaging and other costs. Their eventual recovery value may be lower, higher or zero; estimate it explicitly instead of assuming next season will solve it.
| Check | Decision input |
|---|---|
| Ready-to-sell date | Arrival plus receiving and preparation |
| Stock at arrival | Current stock plus incoming stock minus expected sales |
| Remaining demand | Low, central and high scenarios |
| Minimum order | Cash and storage committed |
| Leftover route | Realistic recovery, effort and timing |
Set the cutoff as a review rule
A cutoff need not mean no exceptions. It means late orders require a fresh calculation and named approval. A confirmed customer order with appropriate terms may justify buying after a general stock-building cutoff; a hopeful reaction to yesterday's rush may not.
The Australian Government's inventory guidance includes considering seasonal demand and delivery lead time. The specific cutoff and scenario calculations here are suggestions for your own planning, not a forecast supplied by that guidance.
Further reading: Australian Government: Manage your inventory
Record the decision so next season starts smarter
Keep the date, quantities, assumptions and outcome. Note whether the line sold out, how much remained and which recovery route actually worked. Separate product leftovers from dated packaging that could not be reused.
Do not copy this year's purchase order as next year's forecast. Use the record to ask what changed in demand, delivery reliability, selling window and variant mix. If a late order failed because it arrived too late, increasing the discount may be less useful than changing the supplier timetable.
Stop reordering deliberately rather than waiting for the season to end. That gives you time to adjust the display, communicate availability and clear remaining stock while customers still have a reason to buy it.
Use an Unpickle recurring task for the seasonal review and house knowledge for your buying checklist. Forecasts, purchase orders and retail sales remain in your own planning records. Keep seasonal reviews from slipping.